back to top
Monday, June 10, 2024
HomeCryptoBitcoin price prediction ahead of the US Fed's June FOMC meeting

Bitcoin price prediction ahead of the US Fed’s June FOMC meeting

Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range since February, currently at $69,558, leaving traders eagerly awaiting the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 12 to set targets. interest rate target of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Historically, FOMC meetings and interest rate decisions have had a significant impact on Bitcoin price. Accordingly, ChatGPT-4o will provide technical analysis and financial market prediction context to predict BTC price before June 12.

Against this backdrop, OpenAI’s leading artificial intelligence (AI) model predicts Bitcoin will trade between $68,000 and $73,000. However, a rate cut or hint of an upcoming cut could push BTC above that range. ChatGPT-4o forecasts the top cryptocurrency between $73,000 and $75,000 or more in this unlikely economic scenario.

ChatGPT-4o model predicts Bitcoin price before FOMC meeting (June) | Source: NanoGPT

Bitcoin price analysis

Notably, Bitcoin has been trading within a clearly defined range since late February, between $60,000 and $72,000. These price levels are important support and resistance for traders and investors.

During that time, BTC deviated from its price range twice, and each time it happened within two days. One in mid-March hit an all-time high of $73,805, and one in early May dropped rapidly to $56,590.

Recently, “digital gold” kept this range tighter between $66,000 and $72,000. A famous trader believes that these are respectively ideal and high-risk entry points for BTC speculators.


Daily BTC price chart | Source: TradingView

Interest rate target for June FOMC meeting

Interestingly, 97.8% of the financial market expects interest rates will not be cut at 525-550 basis points (bps). On May 9, expectations were slightly less bearish, with 8.4% expecting a decline to 500-525 bps. This data is from CME FedWatch, retrieved on June 9.


Probability interest rate target for the FOMC meeting on June 12 | Source: CME FedWatch

Furthermore, historical data demonstrates how the economic scenario has changed over the past 4 months as Bitcoin entered its current range. In February, only 1.45% of the market expected June rates to remain at 525-550 bps.

In April, the expected rates were 42% to 56% for 525-550 bps and 500-525 bps, respectively, 2% for 475-500 bps in the June FOMC meeting.


History of target interest rate probability for the FOMC meeting on June 12 | Source: CME FedWatch

Therefore, the range in which Bitcoin is trading could be directly influenced by unchanged interest rate decisions from the previous FOMC meeting. Against this backdrop, June’s target could continue to have a major impact on BTC’s movements. Investors and traders must exercise caution this week, as many analysts predict high volatility ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting.

KBitcoin’s low exchange rate signal upside potential in lower time frames

Swan’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Rapha Zagury also found that Bitcoin is trading range. In a recent post on X, Zagury used Bitcoin’s low volume status to analyze the situation and predict what could happen soon. Zagury revisited his analysis of the leading cryptocurrency as it finds itself in a similar situation.

Source: Rapha Zagury

In July 2020, Zagury pointed to a period of low trading volume for Bitcoin that led to price increases. Specifically, Bitcoin increased in price for 30 days after a month of significantly low trading volume. For context, the famous analyst considers BTC’s trading volume below 30% to be low.

Meanwhile, CIO Swan revealed that Bitcoin’s current 15-day rolling volatility figure is 23%, significantly lower than the value in July 2020. According to Zagury, BTC’s 15-day volume is at a bottom that has occurred six times in the digital asset’s history.

The analyst classified the pattern as forming after a period of low trading volume for Bitcoin. He pointed to an average price increase of 20.95% over 30 days, following a period of typical low trading volume. The minimum profit during this period was -30.06%, while BTC could bring a profit of 218.4%.

By extending the forecast to 90 days, Zagury highlights the average profit for Bitcoin in such a situation to be 56.82%, the minimum profit to be -45.26%, and the maximum profit in 90 days after about low volume periods were 388.6%.

Extending the period to 365 days, CIO Swan shows that Bitcoin generated an average return of 820.82%. He also revealed that the minimum profit in a year was -55.59%, while the maximum profit was achieved at 8,087% after periods of low trading volume.

While acknowledging Bitcoin is an asset with a limited supply to HODL, Zagury note Prices hovering around all-time highs have investors worried. However, he suggests most BTC gains after periods of low trading volume are concentrated on lower time frames.

You can see Bitcoin prices here.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

Minh Anh

According to Bitcoin Magazine

Mark Tyson
Mark Tyson
Freelance News Writer. Always interested in the way in which technology can change people's lives, and that is why I also advise individuals and companies when it comes to adopting all the advances in Apple devices and services.


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here